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User blog:Hurricane Layten/June 14, 2017 Discussion
OK, straight into today's discussion, where there's plenty to discuss, and even something to worry about potentially in the Atlantic. The National Hurricane Center now has two areas of interest to monitor in the coming days. The first area of interest is a strong tropical wave that has emerged from the coast of Africa in the last 2 days, which has been tagged with a low chance for tropical cyclone development within the next 5 days. The wave is currently moving west at about 10-15 kt, and is situated in an environment of very moist air, isn't being hindered by the Saharan Air Layer, and is being aided by Wind surge that is tailing the low as it moves west. Modelling develops this low into a tropical depression in around 4-6 days, before intensifying the system into a tropical storm as moves towards the Lesser Antilles and the northern coast of South America. If this wave does actually develop, it sure will be a sign of what is potentially to come this season, as tropical waves that develop during the early season are rare, and usually hint at an active period. Whats even more fascinating is the fact that the wave is forecast to become a tropical storm by many of the global models, which would make it the first June main development region tropical storm since reliable records began in 1851. Now, onto the other area of interest highlighted by the NHC. An area of low pressure is expected to develop in the western Caribbean Sea later this week in association with a monsoonal trough that is forecast to develop over Central America. Whilst this is highlighted as an area of interest, modelling remains uncertain on what exactly the disturbance will do. Models develop the gyre that is forecast to develop into a tropical cyclone, before dropping it on the next run and returning to it later on again. Whilst I do think a tropical cyclone could possibly happen in the extended period, I'm not expecting one in the next 5 days. the low is forecast to make landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula, before moving out into the warm southern Gulf of Mexico by 5 days, where some development could take place if the hostile shear over the region can relax before the system enters the Gulf. Now, onto the eastern Pacific, where the NHC has for some reason tagged the remains of Calvin as having a 0% chance of regeneration, besides being several miles inland. The remains of Calvin are producing showers and thunderstorms, and although this will almost certainly prevent regeneration, the low is something to keep an eye on for the locals. The remains of Calvin are producing life threatening flash floods over the mountains of Mexico, so anyone in the area needs to remain alert for sudden changes to hostile conditions. Elsewhere in the tropics, no new areas of interest have, or are expected to, develop in the coming days. I am going to finish by saying that the situation in the Atlantic currently consists of a convectively coupled Kelvin wave, a phenomenon that aids the development of significant tropical development, and therefore helps tropical cyclones to develop. Couple this with a possible Madden-Julian Oscillation, which is a similar phenomenon that relaxes and temporarily reverses the trades across the Atlantic, and there it s, the perfect environment for a tropical cyclone to develop. I'll have more here tomorrow if anything else develops between now and then. Category:Blog posts